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Aligos Therapeutics, Inc. (ALGS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was dominated by non-cash warrant liability revaluation, driving a net loss of $82.2M and EPS of $(13.08), while operating loss narrowed vs Q3 as R&D and G&A declined; cash and short-term investments ended at $56.9M, with runway extended into 2H 2026 post the $105M February private placement .
  • Revenue remained de minimis and non-product based (customers: $0.606M; collaborations: $0.023M), with operating expenses down to $21.2M; the company emphasized pipeline progress in HBV (ALG-000184) and MASH (ALG-055009) with Phase 2 start for ALG-000184 targeted mid-2025 .
  • Consensus context: S&P Global estimates were unavailable via tool access; third-party data show EPS consensus at $(2.63) vs actual $(13.08), and revenue consensus $0.43M vs actual $0.63M, implying a large EPS miss driven by the warrant fair value loss and a modest revenue beat .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: financing closed on Feb 13, 2025; Phase 2 timing (mid-2025) for ALG-000184; and continued positive long-duration HBV suppression data and MASH MRI-PDFF reductions presented at AASLD TLM 2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Management reinforced ALG-000184’s “first-/best-in-class” potential with durable HBV DNA suppression (100% of HBeAg+ subjects <LLOQ ≤84 weeks; HBeAg- 100% <LLOQ at Week 48), no viral breakthrough, and no CAM-resistant mutations, supporting Phase 2 initiation mid-2025; quote: “That future looks bright as we move ALG-000184 closer towards a Phase 2 clinical study” .
  • HERALD Phase 2a for ALG-055009 delivered statistically significant liver fat reductions at Week 12 (placebo-adjusted median relative reductions up to 46.2%; up to 70% achieving ≥30% reduction) with favorable tolerability, adding strategic optionality for partnering/out-licensing .
  • Cash runway extended into 2H 2026 after the $105M private placement, providing funding for ALG-000184 Phase 2 and corporate needs; financing details (shares, pre-funded/warrants, pricing) confirmed by press release .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 net loss and EPS were sharply impacted by a $60.8M non-cash loss from change in fair value of common warrants, overshadowing operational improvements; EPS printed $(13.08) vs $(5.50) YoY .
  • Revenue remained minimal and non-product: customers $0.606M and collaborations $0.023M in Q4, underscoring the pre-commercial profile and reliance on financing and collaborations .
  • S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved via tool access, complicating standardized beat/miss analysis; third-party consensus shows a significant EPS miss likely attributable to the warrant liability mark-to-market .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue from Customers ($USD Millions)$1.061 $1.250 $0.606
Revenue from Collaborations ($USD Millions)$0.000 $0.019 $0.023
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$27.475 $21.400 $21.192
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(26.414) $(20.131) $(20.563)
Interest and Other Income (Loss), net ($USD Millions)$31.664 $0.963 $(0.788)
Change in Fair Value of Common Warrants ($USD Millions)N/AN/A$(60.772)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$5.061 income $(19.259) $(82.150)
Basic & Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.03 $(3.07) $(13.08)
Cash ($USD Millions)$45.078 $35.331 $36.997
Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$49.458 $39.591 $19.942
Cash + Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$94.536 $74.922 $56.939

Notes:

  • Q2 2024 “Net income” driven by non-cash warrant liability decrease within “Interest and other income, net” .
  • Margins (EBIT/Net Income Margin %) were not disclosed in filings, and retrieval via S&P Global was unavailable.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayCorporate“Sufficient cash to fund planned operations through end of 2025” (Q3 release) “Sufficient funding of planned operations into the second half of 2026” (post-Feb financing) Raised runway
ALG-000184 Phase 2 StartHBV (CHB)“Progressing towards a Phase 2 study next year (2025)” (Q3) “Phase 2 study expected to begin mid-2025” (Q4) Timing specified/affirmed
ALG-097558 DDI/RBA Study StartPan-coronavirus“Three additional clinical studies expected to begin in 2024” (Q3) “Drug-drug interaction and relative bioavailability study to start dosing in Q2 2025” (Q4) Timing updated later
ALG-055009 Development PathMASH“Completing Phase 2b enabling; evaluating partnering” (Q3) “Continuing to evaluate options including potential out-licensing” (Q4) Strategic options maintained

No revenue/EPS/OpEx tax rate guidance was provided in Q4 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 earnings call transcript was available; themes below reflect press releases and 8-Ks.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
HBV (ALG-000184) clinical durability≤72-week monotherapy data in CHB showed sustained DNA/RNA suppression; ongoing dosing to 96 weeks; FDA feedback on HBV DNA suppression endpoint; Phase 2 enabling underway Positive feedback from US/China regulators; collaboration with Amoytop; sustained suppression highlighted; Phase 2 enabling ≤84–92 week durability with 100% suppression in cohorts; no breakthrough/CAM resistance; Phase 2 start mid-2025 Strengthening clinical durability and regulatory clarity
MASH (ALG-055009) efficacy/tolerabilityPhase 2a HERALD enrollment complete; topline data expected early Q4 2024 Topline HERALD: median relative reductions up to 46.2%; 70% ≥30% reductions; favorable GI AE profile; lipid improvements AASLD TLM 2024 presentations confirm MRI-PDFF reductions and lipid effects; continued strategic evaluation Efficacy reinforced; partnering optionality
Coronavirus (ALG-097558) programPK supports BID, ritonavir-free dosing; NIH-supported Phase 2 enabling AGILE sponsorship; special population PK; Phase 2 enabling with NIH support NIAID DDI/RBA study dosing expected Q2 2025; future development funded externally Progress continues, externally funded
Capital & runwayNo split yet; cash + ST investments $99.57M current assets Reverse split (Aug 19, 2024) improves listing compliance; cash+ST investments $79.82M current assets; runway through YE25 $105M private placement completed; runway into 2H 2026 Runway extended; balance sheet reinforced
Regulatory/endpoint strategy (HBV)FDA supportive of sustained HBV DNA suppression as primary endpoint US/China feedback cited; study designs toward registration Continued positioning for Phase 2 with durable suppression Alignment holds

Management Commentary

  • CEO Lawrence Blatt: “2024 was a pivotal year for the company, paving the way for the future of Aligos… we move ALG-000184 closer towards a Phase 2 clinical study… We continue to believe our CAM-E has the potential to be a first- and best-in-class candidate” .
  • On ALG-055009: “With placebo-adjusted median relative reductions in liver fat of up to 46.2%, we continue to believe ALG-055009 has best-in-class potential” .
  • On strategic capital: “The Company completed a $105 million private placement financing on February 13, 2025” and expects funding into 2H 2026 .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 earnings call transcript was available; management disclosures were via 8-K and press releases. Focus areas likely include warrant liability impact on EPS, Phase 2 timelines for ALG-000184, partnering/out-licensing plans for ALG-055009, and runway extension from the financing .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus could not be retrieved due to tool access limits; therefore, standardized SPGI comparisons are unavailable.
  • Third-party consensus (MarketBeat): EPS consensus $(2.63) vs actual $(13.08); Revenue consensus $0.43M vs actual $0.63M, implying a large EPS miss and modest revenue beat .
MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualBeat/Miss
EPS ($USD)$(2.63) $(13.08) Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.43 $0.629 (customers+collaborations) Beat

Driver of EPS miss: $(60.8)M non-cash warrant fair value loss materially impacted GAAP EPS .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The Q4 EPS miss is primarily a non-operational item (warrant fair value), while operating expenses trended down—focus on cash runway now extended into 2H 2026 post financing .
  • Clinical durability of ALG-000184 with multi-marker suppression and no resistance supports Phase 2 mid-2025—key near-term catalyst; monitoring conference readouts and regulatory progress is critical .
  • ALG-055009’s HERALD efficacy and tolerability support strategic options (partnering/out-licensing), potentially non-dilutive capital pathways to prioritize HBV .
  • Expect continued external funding for ALG-097558 development, reducing capital intensity while preserving optionality in coronavirus therapeutics .
  • Revenue remains minimal and non-product; stock reaction will hinge on clinical milestones, partnering news, and capital strategy rather than near-term P&L .
  • Watch warrant liability dynamics; future EPS volatility can occur from non-cash marks—focus on operating loss trajectory and cash usage .
  • Near-term trading: potential catalysts include Phase 2 start announcements, additional HBV durability data, and any partnering updates; medium-term thesis rests on HBV registration pathway clarity and MASH monetization.